When the Stock Market will move down?
One line answer to this question is - when majority of retail investors have entered into the market, then the stock market will move down. This point is called Market Top. Usually Market Top is not an one day event and it is a process which take couple of weeks to months to complete the top.
Stock Market Top in Bull Market
When the companies are doing good, it encourages retail investors to enter into the market. As long as the company earnings are good and GDP is excellent, there would not any problems. There would be one time when most of the retail investors have created long positions on equities and institutional investors from other countries, then there is a lack of new money. Since buyers are very less compared to sellers, market will move down and it is known market topping process.
Stock Market Bottom in Bear Market
Currently we have VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) to guage to fear in the stock market. When it reaches and going beyond 40, 50, 60 and it means there is panic in the market. This is the time when retail investors will be selling off their positions for losses by accepting the multi-decade low prices and exit from the market. This is the also the time where many big investors will create long positions to take advantage of the low prices. Panic can exist for couple of days to weeks. But there is no history that states that market panic will be there for years and also Stock Market can not go down to Zero.
How technicals do work in Stock Market?
Always Fundamentals wins in the long run compared to technicals. But most of the trading days only follows technicals. The key factor is 200 days and 50 days moving averages that create a powerful support level or resistance level depends on the current market levels.